The Eurovision Song Contest 2026 continues this Thursday, May 14 from 21:00 CEST with its second semi-final. The Wiener Stadthalle in Vienna welcomes the last 15 countries seeking a place in the grand final of the European contest.
All of them will take to the Eurovision stage to defend their entries with the aim of convincing both the public and the jury. The participating countries in this qualifying round are: Bulgaria, Azerbaijan, Romania, Luxembourg, Czechia, Armenia, Switzerland, Cyprus, Latvia, Denmark, Australia, Ukraine, Albania, Malta, and Norway.
In this 70th edition, the festival once again has the official paid betting odds available. Although they are not usually a faithful reflection of the final results, they do offer us a perspective on which entries are the most striking for bettors and, consequently, the most competitive heading into the contest. In addition, in a year marked by controversy and boycott due to the participation of Israel, the betting odds are undergoing significant changes with every new development surrounding the event.
Which countries will qualify for the grand final? Will the predictions for the favorites come true? Will there be any surprises? Find out in our new analysis of the second semi-final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026.
Which countries from the second semi-final will qualify for the grand final of Eurovision Song Contest 2026 according to the betting odds?
The Eurovision Song Contest continues with its 70th edition. Its second semi-final will take place from 21:00 CEST. Just a few hours before the show, it is interesting to take a look at the current betting situation.
The accredited press has already been able to enjoy the general rehearsals of the show, watching the full performances of each country for the first time. Although there were only slight variations during the individual rehearsal days, these final hours are very active moments for the betting houses.
Let us remember that the decision in the semi-finals rests with the professional juries and the viewers. As a new feature, this edition once again includes the variable of the professional panel vote, making it more difficult to accurately predict the bettors’ trends in each qualifying round.
In the second semi-final (Thursday, May 14), the betting houses predict that Denmark, Australia, Romania, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Albania, Czechia, Malta, Cyprus, and Norway will secure their ticket to the grand final.
Among them, the top four favorites maintain a very high percentage, with more than 94% qualification chances, and a very positive outlook following their general rehearsals. The rise of Romania stands out, climbing more than five points and several positions. Meanwhile, Bulgaria and Albania are enjoying a significant rise. In fact, the Albanian entry has gone from barely approaching the Top 10 to settling comfortably in 6th place.
For its part, after several days of fluctuations, Czechia is once again increasing its percentage up to 82%, with all indicators in green and the prospect of continuing to improve its odds.
However, Malta, Cyprus, and Norway are falling considerably in the semi-final ranking, although their qualification would still be secured by a wide margin. Among them, the Cypriot entry has dropped to 9th place, reducing its percentage to 66% with a negative trend. A similar case applies to the Maltese proposal, alongside a sharp fall for Norway, which has lost more than 10 points.
At the lower end of the table, Latvia and, above all, Switzerland, could deliver a surprise tonight. In particular, the positive trend of the Swiss entry stands out, reaching 43%. As for the rest, Armenia, Luxembourg, and Azerbaijan are suffering significant drops, with the Azerbaijani proposal being the worst affected in the ranking, with only 9% qualification chances.
| Country | Artist | Song | Qualification Probability (Betting Odds) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Denmark | Søren Torpegaard Lund | «Før Vi Går Hjem» | 96% |
| 2nd | Australia | Delta Goodrem | «Eclipse» | 95% |
| 3rd | Romania | Alexandra Căpitănescu | «Choke Me» | 95% |
| 4th | Ukraine | LELÉKA | «Ridnym» | 94% |
| 5th | Bulgaria | DARA | «Bangaranga» | 88% |
| 6th | Albania | Alis Kallaçi | «Nân» | 82% |
| 7th | Czechia | Daniel Žižka | «CROSSROADS» | 82% |
| 8th | Malta | AIDAN | «Bella» | 80% |
| 9th | Cyprus | Antigoni | «JALLA» | 66% |
| 10th | Norway | JONAS LOVV | «YA YA YA» | 61% |
| 11th | Latvia | Atvara | «Ēnā» | 43% |
| 12th | Switzerland | Veronica Fusaro | «Alice» | 43% |
| 13th | Armenia | SIMÓN | «Paloma Rumba» | 34% |
| 14th | Luxembourg | Eva Marija | «Mother Nature» | 33% |
| 15th | Azerbaijan | JIVA | «Just Go» | 9% |
However, let us remember that the betting odds do not always get it right, although they do offer us a picture as close as possible to what we may encounter during the live shows. Let us also remember that only 10 countries will qualify and the decision will rest exclusively in the hands of the national juries and the televote.
Which countries are the current favorites to win the Eurovision Song Contest 2026?
The betting houses agree on who the favorites are for this Eurovision Song Contest 2026, with figures that have gradually consolidated during the weeks leading up to the rehearsals on the stage of the Wiener Stadthalle in Vienna.
Finland remains at the top, increasing its percentages up to 37%. The entry by Linda Lampenius x Pete Parkkonen with «Liekinheitin» has improved following their live performance on Tuesday, May 12 during the first semi-final.
In 2nd place, Greece remains with Akylas and «Ferto», but it is experiencing a drop in its odds to 13% probability, with its negative trend currently standing out.
Meanwhile, Denmark with Søren Torpegaard Lund and «Før Vi Går Hjem» maintains its 3rd place, with a slight improvement in its figures up to 10%.
Australia with Delta Goodrem and «Eclipse» records the biggest rise in recent days, climbing to 4th place and surpassing 8% winning chances. The Australian entry remains the favorite to win the national jury vote and has a very positive outlook (29%).
In 5th place, Israel stands with 7% (surpassing 38% probability of being the most voted by viewers). Meanwhile, France with Monroe and «Regarde!» falls to 6th place in the betting odds, although it improves its percentage up to 7%.
Just like in previous days, Romania with Alexandra Căpitănescu and «Choke Me» consolidates its 7th place with 3% winning chances.
Meanwhile, Italy with Sal Da Vinci and «Per Sempre Sì» continues in 8th place and improves its figures up to 3% chances.
A positive outlook for Bulgaria with DARA and «Bangaranga», rising seven places to 9th place, approaching 2% probability.
Meanwhile, Malta with AIDAN and «Bella» closes the Top 10 with 2% chances. The entry is not slowing its decline and is being threatened by Ukraine, which reaches 11th place.
On the other hand, Sweden with FELICIA and «My System» has fallen sharply, dropping out of the Top 10 and landing in 13th place, with only 1% winning chances.
Meanwhile, with percentages below 1%, we find Croatia, Moldova, Czechia, and Cyprus, with the entry by Antigoni and «JALLA» being another of the entries that has dropped the most.