With Eurovision 2025 officially underway, fans and betting markets alike are buzzing ahead of tonight’s first live show in Basel, Switzerland. Fifteen countries will compete in Semi-Final 1 at St. Jakobshalle, hoping to earn one of 10 coveted spots in Saturday’s Grand Final.
But which countries are the frontrunners? And where do the biggest surprises lie?
Latest Betting Odds Before Eurovision 2025 Semi-Final 1
According to major betting platforms and ESCplus’ real-time prediction tool — which factors in not only bookmaker data, but also Spotify streams, YouTube views, and other trend metrics — the current favorites to qualify tonight are:
| Rank | Country | Artist | Song | Qualification Odds | ESCplus Prediction Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweden | KAJ | “Bara Bada Bastu” | 95% | 26.14% |
| 2 | Estonia | Tommy Cash | “Espresso Macchiato” | 95% | 5.80% |
| 3 | Netherlands | Claude | “C’est La Vie” | 94% | 3.85% |
| 4 | Ukraine | Ziferblat | “Bird of Pray” | 93% | 1.35% |
| 5 | Albania | Shkodra Elektronike | “Zjerm” | 93% | 1.88% |
| 6 | Cyprus | Theo Evan | “Shh” | 85% | 1.28% |
| 7 | Poland | Justyna Steczkowska | “GAJA” | 84% | 1.21% |
| 8 | Norway | Kyle Alessandro | “Lighter” | 82% | 1.78% |
| 9 | Belgium | Red Sebastian | “Strobe Lights” | 82% | 3.17% |
| 10 | San Marino | Gabry Ponte | “Tutta L’Italia” | 51% | 2.96% |
Just Outside the Qualification Bubble
Several countries are still in contention but currently fall just short of the projected Top 10. These borderline entries include:
| Rank | Country | Artist | Odds | ESCplus Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Slovenia | Klemen | 49% | 0.31% |
| 12 | Iceland | VÆB | 42% | 0.64% |
| 13 | Azerbaijan | Mamagama | 26% | 0.34% |
| 14 | Portugal | NAPA | 15% | 0.75% |
| 15 | Croatia | Marko Bošnjak | 14% | 0.29% |
Betting odds offer a snapshot of public and expert sentiment — but they don’t always predict the final outcome. With the semi-final decided exclusively by public televoting, there’s plenty of room for surprises. Unexpected qualifiers and shock eliminations have defined Eurovision in the past.
Still, trends in Spotify streams, social media buzz, and rehearsal impressions provide critical insight. That’s why ESCplus’ real-time prediction tool goes beyond traditional betting data to give a more holistic picture.
Notable Changes and Rising Stars
- Sweden remains the top favorite, with a massive 95% qualification probability and over 26% of the projected win share.
- Belgium is on the rise, jumping above 82% odds after rehearsals.
- The Netherlands, Poland, and Albania also see modest climbs.
- San Marino’s odds have dipped, opening the door for Slovenia, which is gaining momentum and might overtake them by showtime.
- Portugal, Azerbaijan, and Croatia saw significant drops in probability after full-stage rehearsals.
🔍 Final Insight: While Austria’s momentum has stalled, Switzerland and Belgium are both gaining traction following strong rehearsals. France and Spain have dipped slightly, while Finland and Estonia hold steady in the upper ranks.
Conclusion: Semi-Final 1 Could Still Surprise Us
While betting odds and prediction models offer great context, Eurovision is never fully predictable. With fan votes driving the results tonight, even outsiders could break through and claim a spot in the final.
Will Slovenia pull off a last-minute qualification? Can San Marino hold on? Will Iceland or Portugal surprise?
We’ll find out soon.
🗳️ Semi-Final 1 airs tonight, Tuesday May 13, at 21:00 CEST (3:00 PM EST / 12:00 PM PDT) and can be watched live via:
- Peacock (USA) – for Premium subscribers
- Eurovision YouTube Channel – worldwide, no commentary