Editorial

Eurovision 2019: ESCplus prediction tool update – first rehearsals impact

With the first round of rehearsals underway, we’ve got some updates to the most likely winners and chances of qualifying for the final.

You can access the tool by clicking on the banner below:

This week the first round of rehearsals for countries participating in the semi-finals took place in Tel Aviv. The press in attendance had immediate reactions to the performances and this has informed the odds of winning Eurovision 2019.

Although everyone had their favorites, the odds have fluctuated based on the general overall reaction.  Let’s take a look at the biggest gainers and biggest decreases in odds as a result.

Biggest gainers:

Azerbaijan: If there was one surprise that came of the first round of rehearsals, it has to be the reaction to Chingiz. It wasn’t until the very end of our first four days of this Eurovision fortnight that we got to see Chingiz perform ‘Truth’ for the first time. Azerbaijan now stands at seventh most likely to win Eurovision 2019 and had the biggest upward change of the top 10.

Sweden: John Ludvink had a good rehearsal too. The minor changes made to his staging from Melodifestivalen were well received.  His odds have bumped up some from an already strong position.

Malta: Michaela also benefitted from the wow factor as she spent the majority of the pre-party season under wraps. ‘Chameleon’ played well in its Israeli debut and Michaela’s chances of bringing Eurovision 2020 to Malta have increased.

Outside of the top 10 we saw positive changes for North Macedonia and Australia.

Biggest decreases:

Switzerland: If I had to pick the opposite reaction to Azerbaijan it has to be Switzerland. While Luca still remains in the top 3 of our odds, he is not trending in the right direction.

Russia: Same as Luca, while Sergey has not fallen too far – the big reveal of his staging did not cause the type of stir in his odds you would expect.

Iceland: While the performance did not seem too far off what audiences saw at Songvakeppnin, Iceland’s steady ascension in our odds and possible dark horse status seem to be in jeopardy as they fall to 9th.

The current top 10 stands as:

Pos.CountryArtistSongChances of Winning
1
The NetherlandsDuncan LaurenceArcade18.78%
2
ItalyMahmoodSoldi10.81%
3
SwitzerlandLuca HänniShe Got Me8.21%
4
RussiaSergey LazarevScream7.81%
5
SwedenJohn LundvikToo Late For Love6.71%
6
CyprusTamtaReplay5.32%
7
AzerbaijanChingizTruth5.28%
8
MaltaMichelaChameleon4.25%
9
IcelandHatariHatrið mun sigra4.16%
10
NorwayKEiiNOSpirit in the Sky4.07%

As you can see, the Netherlands is still our favorite to win Eurovision 2019 having suffered a minor blip in the % chances. The next big test will come on Friday when Mahmood rehearses for the first time.

Check back with us this weekend for our next update… this time from Tel Aviv!

 

ESCplus odds is an exclusive tool that gathers results from different sources, such as betting odds, views, users reactions and potential comments to simulate the results of the contest.  The methodology behind the tool relies on various principles of mathematical modelling and historical data.

You can access the tool by clicking on the banner below:

The Eurovision Song Contest 2019 will take place on 14th, 16th and 18th May in Tel Aviv, Israel.

 

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