Editorial

Eurovision 2019: ESCplus prediction tool update #2

As fans wait for the semi-final running order of the Eurovision Song contest to be announced and the official pre-party season to begin – there is much speculation about who this year’s favorites are.

ESCplus launched its online prediction tool to try to accomplish this.

The exclusive tool that gathers results from different sources, such as betting odds, views, users reactions and potential comments to simulate the results of the contest.  The methodology behind the tool relies on various principles of mathematical modeling and historical data.

Let’s take a look at guidance is giving us in week 2:

MOST LIKELY WINNER:

Netherlands – Duncan Laurence – This was the bookies favorite early on, a revealing music video and a haunting refrain have most likely put this at the top.  This is still the tool’s most likely winner of Eurovision 2019.

The remainder of the top 5 have also stayed the same this week.  However, we have a mover on the rise in Hatari from Iceland.

Iceland rises from last week’s standing of 9th to 7th and shows sign of some good momentum. The one thing to happen in the space of the last week has been that the message of the song’s meaning has been explained to the press in a way that might be more appealing to jury voters. In an article in BBC news the background of the song having a forewarning of what will happen if mankind cannot love one another is possibly more appealing to bookmakers than the initial reaction to a song that is translated to “Hate Will Prevail” as its title.

What do you think of the current favorites to win?  Is it better to be the favorite with room only to fall or be an underdog who works their way up? Let us know in the comments.

Check back next week to see how our tool has rearranged itself!

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