Which countries will qualify? Here’s how the betting odds stand before the first semifinal of Eurovision 2026

The Eurovision Song Contest 2026 kicks off tonight at 21:00 CEST with its first semifinal. The Wiener Stadthalle in Vienna welcomes the 15 countries seeking a place in the grand final of the European contest.

All of them will take to the Eurovision stage to perform their entries with the aim of convincing both the public and the jury. The countries participating in this semifinal are: Moldova, Sweden, Croatia, Greece, Portugal, Georgia, Finland, Montenegro, Estonia, Israel, Belgium, Lithuania, San Marino, Poland, and Serbia.

In this 70th edition, the festival once again has official paid betting odds available. Although they are not usually a completely accurate reflection of the final results, they do offer us a perspective on which entries are attracting the most attention from bettors and, consequently, which are considered the most competitive ahead of the contest. In addition, in a year marked by controversy and boycott due to Israel’s participation, the betting odds are experiencing significant fluctuations with every new development related to the event.

Which countries will make it to the grand final? Will the favorites live up to the predictions? Will there be any surprises? Find out in our new analysis of the first semifinal of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026.

Which countries from the first semifinal will qualify for the Eurovision 2026 grand final, according to the betting odds?

The Eurovision Song Contest opens its 70th edition with the first semifinal, which will take place from 21:00 CEST. A few hours before the show, it is interesting to examine the current state of the betting odds.

Accredited press members have already been able to enjoy the dress rehearsals of the show, watching the full performances of each country for the first time. Although there were only slight variations during the individual rehearsal days, these final hours are usually very active for bookmakers.

Let us remember that the outcome of the semifinals is decided by both the professional juries and the viewers. As a new feature, this edition once again includes the influence of the professional jury panels, making it more difficult to accurately predict betting trends in each semifinal.

In the first semifinal (Tuesday, May 12), bookmakers predict that Finland, Greece, Israel, Sweden, Moldova, Croatia, Serbia, Lithuania, Poland, and Montenegro will secure their ticket to the grand final.

Among them, the top four favorites maintain very high qualification odds, with more than a 96% probability. However, the momentum of Moldova and Croatia is especially noteworthy, as they have continued to rise since rehearsals began. Both now exceed 93%.

Serbia has also climbed to 80%, while Poland has recorded an extraordinary increase of 13 points up to 69%, making it the biggest rise of this semifinal.

At the lower end, Montenegro continues to decline, although it still holds the 10th position. However, the momentum of Portugal could threaten the Balkan country’s qualification.

Among the countries currently projected not to qualify, the most striking case is the sharp drop of Georgia to 23%, with a negative outlook and ranking last in the semifinal.

*As of publication time: Tuesday, May 12 at 13:30 CEST

However, let us remember that the betting odds are not always accurate, although they do provide us with the closest possible overview of what we may encounter during the live shows. It should also be remembered that only 10 countries from each semifinal will qualify, and the decision will rest exclusively in the hands of the national juries and the televote.

Which countries are the current favorites to win Eurovision 2026?

The betting houses agree on who the favorites are for the Eurovision Song Contest 2026, with figures that have gradually consolidated in the weeks leading up to the rehearsals on the Wiener Stadthalle stage in Vienna.

Finland remains in the lead, although its percentage has dropped to 34%. The entry by Linda Lampenius x Pete Parkkonen with “Liekinheitin” has slightly declined compared to the individual rehearsals.

In 2nd place, Greece with Akylas and “Ferto” records a notable increase up to 21% probability, standing out for its positive momentum, although still with a wide gap compared to the next favorite.

Denmark, with Søren Torpegaard Lund and “Før Vi Går Hjem”, remains in 3rd place, but its percentage drops to 9%.

France, with Monroe and “Regarde!”, consolidates its 4th place in the ranking, although its odds have slightly worsened, falling to 6%.

Australia, with Delta Goodrem and “Eclipse”, remains in 5th place, although it drops to 5% probability of victory. After several rehearsal days, the Australian entry continues to be the favorite to win the national jury vote (21%).

In 6th place is Israel with 4% (and a 26% probability of being the most voted by viewers). Meanwhile, Romania, with Alexandra Căpitănescu and “Choke Me”, climbs to 7th place with a 3% probability of victory.

In this overall ranking, Italy, with Sal Da Vinci and “Per Sempre Sì”, has halted its decline and rises to 8th place with a 2% probability of winning.

A highly negative outlook surrounds Malta, with AIDAN and “Bella”, falling to 9th place and barely reaching a 2% probability.

On the other hand, Sweden, with FELICIA and “My System”, holds on to its 10th place, with a 2% chance of victory. Its position remains stable following rehearsals.

Meanwhile, with percentages close to 2%, we find Ukraine and Moldova, with Satoshi’s “Viva, Moldova!” being one of the entries gaining the most momentum. In contrast, Cyprus, Croatia, and Czechia complete a Top 15 that could eventually challenge higher-ranked contenders.

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