The Eurovision Song Contest 2026 comes to an end this Saturday, May 16. The 70th edition of the European contest takes place at the Wiener Stadthalle in Vienna following the victory in 2025 of JJ and his song «Wasted Love».
The Grand Final will feature 25 entries taking to the Eurovision stage to defend their songs and convince both the public and the jury, following the two semifinals and the final dress rehearsals for the Grand Final.
In this 70th edition, the festival once again has official paid betting odds available. Although they are not usually an exact reflection of the final results, they do offer us a perspective on which entries are the most attractive to bettors and, consequently, the most competitive heading into the contest. Furthermore, in a year marked by controversy and boycott due to Israel’s participation, the betting odds are experiencing significant fluctuations with every new development surrounding the event.
Which countries are the favorites to win the crystal microphone? Will the betting favorite be the one to take home the crystal microphone?
Which countries are the favorites for Eurovision 2026 according to the betting houses?
The betting market for the Eurovision Song Contest is not only an indicator of popularity, but also a tool that combines expert analysis, fan sentiment, and the commercial visibility of the entries.
Below, we break down who is leading the betting odds in the race to win the crystal microphone:
In first place, we find Finland. Linda and Pete lead the betting odds by a wide margin (41%) to win the title, consolidating their position as favorites since practically the beginning of the Eurovision Song Contest rehearsals. Their increase in percentage and consolidation as favorites has been largely due to their position in the Grand Final, with the 17th running order spot being considered a strong position to perform.
In second place, we find Australia (22%), which has experienced a spectacular rise in the betting odds after its performance in the second semifinal. It stands out as one of the edition’s “dark horses” and maintains high chances of victory, serving as an alternative to a possible Finnish win.
Third place in the betting odds is occupied by Greece. Akylas (7%) has lost some momentum recently in favor of the leading favorites, although he remains within the Top 3 positions to win the crystal microphone.
Within the Top 5 in the betting odds, we find Israel (6%), Romania (5%), Bulgaria (5%), and Denmark (3%), which, although their chances of victory are lower, are also contenders to win the Eurovision Song Contest.
| # | Country | Artist and Song | Winning Probability |
| 1 | Finland | Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen – «Liekinheitin» | 41% |
| 2 | Australia | Delta Goodrem – «Eclipse» | 22% |
| 3 | Greece | Akylas – «Ferto» | 7% |
| 4 | Israel | Noam Bettan – «Michelle» | 6% |
| 5 | Romania | Alexandra Căpitănescu – «Choke Me» | 5% |
| 6 | Bulgaria | DARA – «Bangaranga» | 5% |
| 7 | Denmark | Søren Torpegaard Lund – «Før Vi Går Hjem» | 3% |
| 8 | Italy | Sal Da Vinci – «Per Sempre Sí» | 2% |
| 9 | France | Monroe – «Regarde!» | 2% |
| 10 | Malta | AIDAN – «Bella» | 1% |
| 11 | Czechia | Daniel Zizka – «CROSSROADS» | 1% |
| 12 | Moldova | Satoshi – «Viva, Moldova!» | 1% |
| 13 | Ukraine | LELÉKA – «Ridnym» | 1% |
| 14 | Sweden | FELICIA – «My System» | 1% |
| 15 | Croatia | LELEK – «Andromeda» | <1% |
| 16 | Albania | Alis – «Nân» | <1% |
| 17 | Cyprus | Antigoni – «JALLA» | <1% |
| 18 | Norway | JONAS LOVV – «YA YA YA» | <1% |
| 19 | Poland | ALICJA – «Pray» | <1% |
| 20 | Serbia | LAVINA – «Kraj Mene» | <1% |
| 21 | United Kingdom | Look Mum No Computer – «Eins, Zwei, Drei» | <1% |
| 22 | Lithuania | Lion Ceccah – «Sólo Quiero Más» | <1% |
| 23 | Germany | Sarah Engels – «Fire» | <1% |
| 24 | Belgium | ESSYLA – «Dancing On The Ice» | <1% |
| 25 | Austria | COSMÓ – «Tanzschein» | <1% |
Below is a breakdown of the odds, from the main European betting houses, for the Top 10 (the lower the odds, the higher the chances of winning):*
| # | % | Bet365 | Betsson | William Hill | Bwin | Epic Bet | Boyle Sports | Unibet | Lad Brokes | Betano | 7bet | Betway | Cool Bet | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Finland | 41% | 1.91 | 2 | 1.91 | 1.85 | 2 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.91 | 2 |
| 2 | Australia | 22% | 3.5 | 3.75 | 3.5 | 3.75 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.75 | 3.25 | 4 | 4 | 3.25 | 4 |
| 3 | Greece | 7% | 11 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Israel | 6% | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 18 | 18 | 13 | 14 |
| 5 | Romania | 5% | 19 | 13 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 15 | 20 |
| 6 | Bulgaria | 5% | 12 | 26 | 17 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 23 | 18 |
| 7 | Denmark | 3% | 26 | 23 | 29 | 26 | 30 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 25 | 34 | 31 |
| 8 | Italy | 2% | 36 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 40 | 34 | 41 | 34 | 35 | 35 | 51 | 36 |
| 9 | France | 2% | 67 | 51 | 51 | 67 | 50 | 51 | 51 | 34 | 50 | 50 | 51 | 41 |
| 10 | Malta | 1% | 46 | 51 | 67 | 51 | 60 | 41 | 101 | 41 | 75 | 75 | 51 | 51 |
Are betting odds infallible, or do they get it wrong more often than we think?
One of the greatest sources of excitement the festival generates among fans is watching how the betting odds graphs move day by day. For many followers of the contest, if a song wakes up on the morning of the final with a 40% or 50% chance of winning, it is taken as a sign of the country’s victory.
However, history shows us that betting odds do not determine the winner and are not immune to the twists and turns a competing entry may experience. Although, if we analyze the last decade of the contest, the data shows that the winner is almost always within the Top 3 in the betting odds after the conclusion of the dress rehearsals.
But there have also been notable exceptions. The clearest example is Francesco Gabbani in 2017, who led the betting odds for months before falling to sixth place in the Grand Final.
Therefore, in Eurovision the final word belongs to the three minutes of live performance in the Grand Final, and to the unpredictable televote with millions of Eurovision fans voting simultaneously from home.