Eurovision Eurovision 2024 Sweden

Eurovision 2024: What can we predict now that we know the running order?

Yesterday (26-03-2024) at 18:00 CET the long-awaited running-order of the Semi-finals of the Eurovision Song Contest 2024 in Malmö (Sweden) was revealed. The running-order of the live shows is always chosen by the producers of the show, because the contest also needs to be a great watch, you do not want a whole lot of ballads one after the other, and then all the up-tempo songs at the end, there needs to be a balance. In which Semi-final and in what half of that Semi-final a country is allocated is decided during “The Draw”, an online (and televised) live event that takes place in the host city.

This year’s Semi-finals running-order

Since yesterday evening we know that in Semi-final 1, thus the first act to perform in this year’s Eurovision live shows is going to be Cyprus’ Silia Kapsis with the song “Liar”, and Semi-final 1 will be closed by Luxembourg’s TALI with “Fighter”, so there will be a bit of battle of the girl bops in Semi-final 1. Furthermore we know that Semi-final 2 will be opened by another upcoming pop princess, which is Malta’s Sarah Bonnici with “Loop”, and at the end the party keeps on rollin’, because this show will be closed by the Netherlands’ Joost Klein with “Europapa”.

The full running-order of both shows

Below you can find videos of which country is going to perform in which of the two Semi-finals and in what order.

Source: Official Eurovision Song Contest YouTube channel (EBU), running-order Semi-final 1
Source: Official Eurovision Song Contest YouTube channel (EBU), running-order Semi-final 2

Our Semi-final predictions

Based on the popular prediction model by that indicated the percentage of how much percent a country has a chance of winning the Eurovision Song Contest 2024 (so not where a country will eventually rank of all participating countries), we can “sort of” predict which countries will eventually be in the Grand Final. In the Grand Final there will be 26 countries of which 6 have already qualified (Big Five + host country).

Keep in mind that the contest is always full of surprises, so this is merely a prediction and not what might actually transpire on the nights of the live shows.

Semi-final 1
Eying the model provided by, the countries below might just be the qualifiers of Semi-final 1. In random order.

  • Cyprus
  • Serbia
  • Lithuania
  • Ireland
  • Ukraine
  • Croatia
  • Iceland
  • Slovenia
  • Finland
  • Azerbaijan

Semi-final 2

If we keep the model above in mind, these might be the qualifiers of 2024’s Semi-final 2. In random order.

  • Greece
  • Switzerland
  • Austria
  • Armenia
  • Georgia
  • Belgium
  • Estonia
  • Israel
  • Norway
  • The Netherlands

It is anyone’s game

But let’s just be honest here, because it is still early days, and from many of the acts we only have a (polished) music video and no live performances. Some acts come alive on the big stage and other flop when sung in a huge arena. So, lots of exciting things are still on the way. Looking forward to what will happen.


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