Yes, we talk about the countries that have the biggest chance to win the contest every year, but who is talking about the bottom 5? Maybe we should, because in the Netherlands people say that “one day the last will be the first”, and who knows where today’s Bottom 5 might end up eventually? We do not know for sure just yet…
Let’s have a look at today’s Bottom 5 as predicted on the website eurovisionworld.com.
By the way, a mistake that is often made is that people think that the ranking on this website is about which country is going to end up where, but that is not the case, it tries to predict “which country has the most chance of winning the contest”, which today means that Croatia has a 20% chance of winning the Eurovision Song Contest 2024 in Malmö (Sweden) and that San Marino has less than 1% chance of winning the whole thing.
Let’s have a look at today’s Bottom 5 together with our ESCplus International blogger, Denis.
33. Portugal
Iolanda – Grito
When I listen to this song it reminds me of Spanish singer/rapper Rosalía, but also of legendary Portuguese fado singer Amália Rodrigues. Next to this, it also gives me Maro vibes, who came in 9th (of 25) for Portugal in the Grand Final of 2022 with the song “Saudade saudade”. Do not count out Iolanda and her magical voice. This song, if brought with a grand performance, might just be the well-needed semi-slow song of the contest. Mind you, this is no small song, it is big in his vocal and theatrical performance, and it is in Portuguese, and a song in the native language of the country of origin is always a great plus. I do not understand why Iolanda’s Grito is in this Bottom 5, but I think this entry might just surprise us in the second half of the first Semi-final on May 7th 2024.
34. Luxembourg
TALI – Fighter
Another song that surprises me that it is in the Bottom 5 for now. This song and national performance has all the elements of a girl bop (strong girl singing about being/becoming a strong woman, male and female dancers on-stage, the girl singer dominating the stage most of the time in a sassy I-don’t-care outfit). This song from Luxembourg seems to have it all, but somehow it is placed in the Bottom 5 for now. I do understand that the national final performance might come across a little lacklustre and fuddy-duddy, but TALI has promised her fans a revamp, and hopefully she spices things up when it comes down to the dancing, outfit, and maybe the overall delivery of this song. The song is called “Fighter”, and somehow this is not really coming across just yet, but I am sure TALI will give her entry a boost, and she will bring the fire in Malmö.
35. Moldova
Natalia Barbu – In the Middle
I was really rooting for Natalia Barbu, because I was expecting her to come back as sassy as back in 2007 when she sang her Moldovan entry, “Fight”, to a respectable 10th place (of 24) when the contest was held in Helsinki (Finland). The song “In the Middle” does not do that for me. In the national final performance it takes ages for her to get to the violin section of the song, and before that finally happens she is just standing there very statically behind the mic. I do not know about this one. The song itself is also not really catchy. I just wanted Natalia Barbu to be as cool as before, but now she does not seem to bring it. I am ready for Natalia to surprise us all with her Eurovision stage performance though. Fingers crossed for this one!
36. Czechia
Aiko – Pedestal
Personally I feel that Aiko is suffering from the same curse as Dutch Mia Nicolai and Dion Cooper in last year’s contest, because when you do really bad during your first live performance that is what audiences will remember you for, and that national performance of “Pedestal” was hard to listen to. I do think that this entry is the ideal song to be angry on and to feel empowered by; I can imagine myself having a total fit on this song and feel relieved when the last notes resound from my speakers. I hope Aiko can pull it together and comes up with a great stage performance in the contest, because otherwise this country might miss out on the Grand Final…
37. San Marino
Megara – 11:11
This, for me – so sorry, Megara, because I loved your Benidorm Fest 2023 song, “Arcadia” – is the deserved last place, because this song is a mess of all sorts of everything, and because of this it lacks cohesion, which is needed for an audience to remember you. I have to say that after Senhit’s “Adrenalina” San Marino has failed to come up with a good entry, although they nationally have this elaborate way of finding their next representative. “11:11” by Megara gives me nothing; they might spruce things up with a great stage performance, but in the national final video the live performance is also off. A shame, I want 2023’s Benidorm Fest Megara back!
What about you?
Is your least favourite song in this Bottom 5 or is it a whole different entry? Might be. Let us know!