This week we see a bit of an increase in the likelihood of an Icelandic victory on May 18th, while Duncan still holds the top spot firmly. Miki climbs into the top ten in the only change in rankings.
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Since the leaderboard has reached a pretty steady state – let’s turn our attention to semi-final two — now just over two weeks away. What does our tool say about the qualification chances of each of the countries competing?
SEMI-FINAL 2 – THURSDAY MAY 16thÂ
| Pos. | Country | Artist | Song | Prob.Qualifying% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
The Netherlands | Duncan Laurence | Arcade | 100.00% |
| 2 |  |
Switzerland | Luca Hänni | She Got Me | 67.26% |
| 3 |  |
Russia | Sergey Lazarev | Scream | 63.76% |
| 4 |  |
Sweden | John Lundvik | Too Late For Love | 47.17% |
| 5 |  |
Norway | KEiiNO | Spirit in the Sky | 31.70% |
| 6 |  |
Malta | Michela | Chameleon | 29.61% |
| 7 |  |
Azerbaijan | Chingiz | Truth | 21.73% |
| 8 |  |
Albania | Jonida Maliqi | Ktheju tokës | 16.00% |
| 9 |  |
Armenia | Srbuk | Walking Out | 14.81% |
| 10 |  |
Denmark | Leonora | Love Is Forever | 12.13% |
| 11 |  |
North Macedonia | Tamara Todevska | Proud | 10.86% |
| 12 |  |
Ireland | Sarah McTernan | 22 | 9.00% |
| 13 |  |
Romania | Ester Peony | On a Sunday | 7.07% |
| 14 |  |
Austria | PÆNDA | Limits | 6.10% |
| 15 |  |
Croatia | Roko | The Dream | 5.43% |
| 16 |  |
Lithuania | Jurij Veklenko | Run With The Lions | 5.13% |
| 17 |  |
Latvia | Carousel | That Night | 4.32% |
| 18 |  |
Moldova | Anna Odobescu | Stay | 3.20% |
I take you through the running order, qualifying chances and human adjustments I’d make to the tool here:
Armenia – leading off semi-final 2 will be SRBUK. While the tools places this inside the top 10, I am skeptical over whether this is going to make it through. The leadoff spot is not a sure gurantee for a qualification and by the time Sergey, Duncan, Luca AND John all perform – I’m worried ‘Walking Out’ might be forgotten. ODDS: Qualifies, Joey: Does Not Qualify
Ireland – I expect this will live up to being second place in the running order’s reputation and produce another non-qualifier. Ireland had a surprise qualification last year after a lot of buzz around Ryan’s performance, but I don’t see something going that way again for ’22’. The odds agree here. ODDS: Does Not Qualify, Joey: Does Not Qualify
Moldova – The entries from Moldova have recently earned a reputation of emerging as solid qualifiers once the staging is unveiled, they’ve also earned the reputation of being the fun, party, pop songs. In 2019, the trends are bucked here for Moldova and so does the qualification run they were on. Sunstroke Project (2017) will be in Tel Aviv and it will be nice to see them. ODDS: Does Not Qualify, JOEY: Does Not Qualify
Switzerland – Luca is the first of our front-runners to win the contest appearing for his rehearsal for the final here. I think that’s really what we have going on with his performance. Outside of a hip injury, I don’t see a scenario where this does not qualify. ODDS: Qualifies, JOEY: Qualifies
Latvia – Carousel will have to follow Luca. That is a tough spot to be in for anyone. In addition, the song ‘That Night’ is not capable of creating a ‘Calm After The Storm’ type moment. This is too sleepy for viewers to pick up enough of the votes it will need from the public. Juries might place it close or even in the top 10 but we expect that’s as good as it will get for Latvia this year. ODDS: Does not Qualify, JOEY: Does Not Qualify
Romania – The odds place this outside of the top 10. I think Romania has some potential to spoil that. This is a good spot for the running order and Ester seemingly won juries over easily in Selctia Nationalia based on the live performance. The staging portends to be elaborate and very visually engaging. Romania has only missed the semis once…ODDS: Does Not Qualify, JOEY: Qualifies
Denmark – Leonora has the love of Sweden, Norway, The Netherlands, and potentially others coming her way. In a semi with so many heavy hitters, it’s mathematically sound to think some of the lower parts of the top ten will come from countries with relatively low scores compared to places 8-10 in other semis. A strong showing in a couple of friendly jurors could make the difference. ODDS: Qualifies, JOEY: Qualifies
Croatia – Roko is so young, he’s balancing homework and Eurovision prep. This isn’t the song to get him to the Eurovision final. I hope the Croatian selection of Dora returns next year and we see them qualify in 2020. ODDS: Does Not Qualify, JOEY: Does Not Qualify
Malta – I feel like Malta has been the most earnest of countries in trying to put their best foot forward for Eurovision success. This year, they turned to X Factor Malta to discover a fresh face to send to Eurovision and then found a song to accompany it. I think this will finally get them to the final for the first time since Ira Losco performed ‘Walk On Water’ in Stockholm. ODDS: Qualifies: JOEY: Qualifies
Lithuania – Jurij has been hard at work here with ‘Running With Lions’, but the odds are showing him short of qualifying for the final. I tend to agree because I don’t see this song having enough to stand out in the sea of male performances being served up in this semi-final. ODDS: Does Not Qualify, JOEY: Does Not Qualify
Russia – Sergey’s back, so is Russia in the finals. I am surprised bookies are still taking bets on this one. ODDS: Qualifies, JOEY: Qualifies
Albania – In a weaker semi, this would approach the status of being a sure thing. Jonida will still qualify based on the amazing vocal, dramatic sound, ethnic themes, and Albanian language – all which allow her to separate herself from the pack. ODDS: Qualifies, JOEY: Qualifies
Norway – KEiiNO are working overtime trying to make ‘Spirit in the Sky’ happen, and it should work. I am concerned about the jury love for this – but even in a worst-case scenario, I think the public vote will be strong enough that we’ll see Norway in the finals. ODDS: Qualifies, JOEY: Qualifies
The Netherlands – Dress Rehearsal for Duncan’s final performance. I’ll be listening for how well the arena can sing along. ODDS: Qualifies, JOEY: Qualifies
North Macedonia – This is tricky. The placement in the running order is as good as it gets for a ballad, but I worry that the song is not memorable enough for new viewers. The one thing going in their favor is that this might be a very female empowerment message in its staging in a night dominated by solo male performers. ODDS: Does Not Qualify, Joey: Does Not Qualify
Azerbaijan – Even without seeing the song live yet I feel confident about this one. Chingiz is bringing a high impact song that juries will likely respect for its radio friendliness amongst other things. Keep an eye on his backup vocalists…I predict great things. ODDS: Qualifies, Joey: Qualifies
Check back next week for our first update after rehearsals have begun!
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The Eurovision Song Contest 2019 will take place on 14th, 16th and 18th May in Tel Aviv, Israel.