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Eurovision 2019: ESCplus prediction tool update #1

We’ve only had all the songs for a matter of days, some of which we have not heard live before.  The running order has not been set for the semis and the stage is not even built yet.  However, we have enough information to see who the likely winner of Eurovision 2019 is going to be.

Yesterday, ESCplus launched its online prediction tool to try to accomplish this. 

The exclusive tool that gathers results from different sources, such as betting odds, views, users reactions and potential comments to simulate the results of the contest.  The methodology behind the tool relies on various principles of mathematical modeling and historical data.

Let’s take a look at guidance is giving us.

MOST LIKELY WINNER:

Netherlands – Duncan Laurence – This was the bookies favorite early on, a revealing music video and a haunting refrain have most likely put this at the top. Could the staging seal the deal

2. Switzerland – Luca Hana – Dare I say this seems like the  Fuego of this season more than Replay.  I think this song will surprise people in Tel Aviv and gain a strong fan vote for its catchy beat and charismatic performer

3. Italy – Mahmood – This song has also been towards the top of the favorites.  Italy has had no problem entering the top 10 the past two years and this should be no exception. The double clap after “Soldi Soldi Soldi” ensures strong crowd participation and a memorable moment.

4.Russia – Sergey Lazarev – This was the favorite until the song came out and then it dipped.  That can’t be a good sign for Russia.  While staging can elevate the performance I would guess Sergey would be performing better in our model if it was a winner.

5. Sweden – John Lundvik – Another favorite before John was even decided upon. However, if last year taught us anything is that the public doesn’t need much encouragement not to vote for Sweden.  Can John win back the public vote that didn’t show love for Benjamin?

Well, what good is all this so early in the game?

A good prediction tool will not always predict the outcome correctly.  However, as a tool, you can use it to look for trends and understand where there may be a tough contest.  A good model builder will always take the actual experience and relate it back to its model.  Let’s look at what we were saying last year at this time:

The tool had predicted a win for Netta at this stage in the competition.   The tool gave Netta a 33% chance of winning at this stage in the contest last year.  This is very close to the 32% chance the tool is assigning to Duncan at this stage.  

What do you think of the current favorites to win?  Is it better to be the favorite with room only to fall or be an underdog who works their way up? Let us know in the comments.

Check back next week to see how our tool has rearranged itself!

 

 

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