Editorial

Eurovision 2019: ESCplus prediction tool update – rehearsals impact

With all countries having rehearsed at least once, we’ve got some updates to the most likely winners and chances of qualifying for the final.

You can access the tool by clicking on the banner below:

In one week we’ll know the winner to Eurovision 2019.  In the meantime, let’s look t the latest predictions and examine the week’s biggest gainers for a chance of winning the top prize and receive the Eurovision trophy from Netta in Tel Aviv a week from tonight.

Although everyone had their favorites, the odds have fluctuated based on the general overall reaction.  Let’s take a look at the biggest gainers and biggest decreases in odds as a result.

Biggest gainers:

Azerbaijan: Azerbaijan shot up quick earlier this week into the top 10 after Chingiz’ first rehearsal. This was just the start.  He’s made steady climb since then and is now sitting at the 6th most likely winner of Eurovision 2019

Sweden: John Ludvink and his ‘mommas’ had a great week. As some other favorites failed to live up to high expectations – John has stayed the course and been consistently delivering his top-notch vocals we got accustomed to in Melodifestivalen.

Malta: Michaela is quickly climbing to flirt with entering the top 5. Could Malta deliver its first ever Eurovision victory?  In a sea of powerhouse male vocalists – maybe Michaela can be the chameleon that is needed?

New to the top 10

The run-up to Eurovision is always filled with a pleasant surprise or two from countries how have elevated their song through staging that become placed in the conversation around a winner when they haven’t been before.  One of those countries this year is France.

Bilal appears to be in the bookie’s favor with ‘Roi’ and it’s not unfathomable to think we could be seeing France contend for the top spot.  However, Madame Monseuir also created a great deal of buzz around their chances of winning Eurovision 2018 and ultimately placed out of the top 10.

 

The current top 10 stands as:

1
The NetherlandsDuncan LaurenceArcade17.94%
2
ItalyMahmoodSoldi9.21%
3
SwedenJohn LundvikToo Late For Love9.06%
4
SwitzerlandLuca HänniShe Got Me7.83%
5
RussiaSergey LazarevScream7.11%
6
AzerbaijanChingizTruth5.08%
7
CyprusTamtaReplay4.87%
8
MaltaMichelaChameleon4.61%
9
SpainMikiLa Venda4.08%
10
FranceBilal HassaniRoi4.01%

As you can see, the Netherlands is still our favorite to win Eurovision 2019 having suffered a minor blip in the % chances. Duncan survived the opportunity Mahmood had to create some momentum… but he’s got another rehearsal tomorrow.

Check back with us on Monday for our last predictions for semi-final 1.

ESCplus odds is an exclusive tool that gathers results from different sources, such as betting odds, views, users reactions and potential comments to simulate the results of the contest.  The methodology behind the tool relies on various principles of mathematical modelling and historical data.

You can access the tool by clicking on the banner below:

The Eurovision Song Contest 2019 will take place on 14th, 16th and 18th May in Tel Aviv, Israel.

 

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