Eurovision 2019: ESCplus prediction tool update #5 – Semi-Final 1

This week we see a bit of an increase in the likelihood of an Italian victory on May 18th, as Mahmood is now the second most likely winner according to the ESCplus odds tool, but the tool also shows Duncan’s position only strengthening while Switzerland falls from second to third.  Sweden drops from 4th to 5th and trades places with Russia to round out the top 5.

Iceland and Norway move up the odds from a place each, while Malta drops down two from 7th to 9th.  Cyprus and Portugal stay firm in their spots of 6th and 10th.

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Let’s take a look at guidance is giving us in week 5:

1			The Netherlands	Duncan Laurence	Arcade	19.81%
2			Italy	Mahmood	Soldi	10.48%
3			Switzerland	Luca Hänni	She Got Me	9.94%
4			Russia	Sergey Lazarev	Scream	7.31%
5			Sweden	John Lundvik	Too Late For Love	6.73%
6			Cyprus	Tamta	Replay	5.77%
7			Iceland	Hatari	Hatrið mun sigra	4.70%
8			Norway	KEiiNO	Spirit in the Sky	4.29%
9			Malta	Michela	Chameleon	3.94%
10			Portugal	Conan Osiris	Telemóveis	3.72%

MOST LIKELY WINNER:

Netherlands – Duncan Laurence – This was the bookies favorite early on, a revealing music video and a haunting refrain have most likely put this at the top.  Duncan had another great weekend as part of the London pre-party and he is still the favorite to win Eurovision 2019.

 

Since the leaderboard has reached a pretty steady state – let’s turn our attention to semi-final one — now just a little over three weeks away.  What does our tool say about the qualification chances of each of the countries competing.

 

SEMI-FINAL 1 – TUESDAY MAY 14th 

Pos.			Country	Artist	Song	Chances of Qualifying
1			Cyprus	Tamta	Replay	85.91%
2			Iceland	Hatari	Hatrið mun sigra	69.98%
3			Portugal	Conan Osiris	Telemóveis	55.39%
4			Greece	Katerine Duska	Better Love	50.77%
5			Belgium	Eliot	Wake Up	41.69%
6			Slovenia	Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl	Sebi	33.80%
7			San Marino	Serhat	Say Na Na Na	24.27%
8			Australia	Kate Miller-Heidke	Zero Gravity	23.53%
9			Czech Republic	Lake Malawi	Friend of a Friend	19.36%
10			Estonia	Victor Crone	Storm	19.06%
11			Hungary	Joci Pápai	Az én apám	15.04%
12			Serbia	Nevena Božović	Kruna	13.25%
13			Belarus	ZENA	Like It	12.21%
14			Finland	Darude ft. Sebastian Rejman	Look Away	11.61%
15			Poland	Tulia	Fire of Love (Pali się)	11.32%
16			Montenegro	D mol	Heaven	6.85%
17			Georgia	Oto Nemsadze	Keep on Going	5.96%

 

I take you through the running order, qualifying chances and human adjustments I’d make to the tool here:

 

Cyprus – leading off the show will be TAMTA – we all expect this to qualify, I challenge you to find a scenario in which it does not.  Cyprus has the momentum coming into this year and TAMTA is bound to elevate a great track that has already won a lot of fans with its high-end production. ODDS: Qualify, JOEY: Qualify

 

Montenegro – our tool gives this roughly a 7% chance of qualifying – which is probably generous. The track got revamped after being selected but even the charm of D-Mol can’t save this dated song.  I think that the second position in the running order has sealed its fate if that weren’t enough. ODDS: Does Not Qualify, Joey: Does Not Qualify

 

Finland – I agree with the tool here in that Finland will not qualify.  The viewing public has not shown any sign of warming to DJ acts on the Eurovision stage and Finland have historically struggled with the juries.  Saraa Alto narrowly qualified last year by winning public votes that I don’t think Darude can replicate. Odds: Does Not Qualify, Joey: Does Not Qualify

 

Poland – Here’s the first spot I disagree with the tool – while the tool only shows an outside chance 11% of Tulia qualifying – I think there performance is a bit intangible at the moment.  The style of music may not be made for building too much Spotify play or attention before the show.. but the visuals and Polish diaspora are going to make this more of a favorite with the public than what the odds say, I hope. Odds: Does Not Qualify, Joey: Qualify

 

Slovenia – Agree we are going to see Sebi in the final. This is memorable and has a nice running spot ODDS: Qualify, JOEY: Qualify

 

 

Czech Republic – Agree that CR will be back in the final this year!  Lake Malawi also have a great running spot and don’t underestimate a song in which you can grab hold of in 30 seconds.  This is too immediate and contemporary for the public to ignore. Although, we know the Czech public would have chosen Space Sushi over this! ODDS: Qualify, JOEY: Qualify

 

Hungary – Our tool says this is borderline and on the side of not qualifying, while most odds are showing it qualifying with fair certainty.  I am really torn on this one.  I think sometimes odds may be overstated where there is name recognition.  If this does not qualify, it will be a shock, but I think I’m going to agree with the tool on this.ODDS: Does Not Qualify, JOEY: Does Not Qualify

 

Serbia – I’m going narrowly agree with the tool here and say that Serbia will get swept away in this duo of non-English language ballads.  Nevena has a big fanbase that seems mobilized to help with the public vote and I think the juries will respect this but it could miss narrowly if others surge.ODDS: Does Not Qualify, JOEY: Does Not Qualify

 

Belarus – I think Zena will surprise a lot of people and will have a decent public vote, but I don’t see juries liking this.ODDS: Does Not Qualify, JOEY: Does Not Qualify

 

 

Belgium – Ok, so the tool has this qualifying with some room for error, but I think this is another close call for Belgium.  I am erring on the side of Eliot qualifying since he will most likely command the young male hearthrob spot of this semi. ODDS: Qualifies, JOEY: Qualifies

 

Georgia – Oto is such a great guy and he is doing what he does with such passion.  If this were a contest about believing in your song and giving it everything you got, I’d put money on him.  However, since it’s not only about those things, and I’ve seen the public reaction – I’m not going to put any money on him qualifying and I think the tool has it correct. ODDS: Does Not Qualify, JOEY: Does Not Qualify

 

Australia – Kate is capable of creating a memorable moment in 3 minutes from her vocals alone and with the staging that the song lends itself too I think this will sail through with the help of juries that continue to place Australia high. ODDS: Qualifies, JOEY: Qualifies

 

Iceland – All going to the master plan, on schedule.  The Hatari movement is real. ODDS: Qualifies, JOEY: Qualifies

 

 

Estonia – This is another questionable call for me and for the tool for that matter – placing it 10th. Victor is going to deliver a by the numbers pop Scandi-sounding song that Eurofans will love. However, I’m shocked at how Estonia has performed in the semis the past couple of years. In 2018 they came 7th with the juries despite being 3rd with the fans and we all know what they did to poor Verona the year before, placing it 17th ! despite it coming 6th with the fans.  ODDS: Qualifies, JOEY: Does not qualify

 

Portugal – Ok, so here is where our tool needs some work, because I think we have some internal bias towards Spain and Portugal where a large percentage of our readers come from.  Having said that – I do agree and hope Conan will qualify.  This is forward thinking while still being an homage to traditional fado music in a sense.  The staging will be hard to ignore if Festival de Cancon is anything to go by. ODDS: Qualifies, JOEY: Qualifies

 

Greece – Like Cyprus, the closest thing we have to a lock and this my prediction on who will actually win this semi.ODDS: Qualifies, JOEY: Qualifies

 

San Marino – the final placement of San Marino really helps with its chances of qualifying.  It’s pretty rare in the past 7 or 8 Eurovisions to have a semi-final song that closes the show not advance to the final… but since the songs are selected by the producers to run in that order, there is a certain amount of judgement already baked into that statistic. Still, if there ever was a time for San Marino to get back to the grand final stage.. it’s now. Tel Aviv calls for a party and  Say Na Na Na is just that… ODDS: Qualifies, JOEY: Qualifies

 

ESCplus odds is an exclusive tool that gathers results from different sources, such as betting odds, views, users reactions and potential comments to simulate the results of the contest.  The methodology behind the tool relies on various principles of mathematical modelling and historical data.

You can access the tool by clicking on the banner below:

The Eurovision Song Contest 2019 will take place on 14th, 16th and 18th May in Tel Aviv, Israel.

 

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