This week we see a bit of an increase in the likelihood of an Italian victory on May 18th, as Mahmood is now the second most likely winner according to the ESCplus odds tool, but the tool also shows Duncan’s position only strengthening while Switzerland falls from second to third. Sweden drops from 4th to 5th and trades places with Russia to round out the top 5.
Iceland and Norway move up the odds from a place each, while Malta drops down two from 7th to 9th. Cyprus and Portugal stay firm in their spots of 6th and 10th.
You can access the tool by clicking on the banner below:
Let’s take a look at guidance is giving us in week 5:
|1||The Netherlands||Duncan Laurence||Arcade||19.81%|
|3||Switzerland||Luca Hänni||She Got Me||9.94%|
|5||Sweden||John Lundvik||Too Late For Love||6.73%|
|7||Iceland||Hatari||Hatrið mun sigra||4.70%|
|8||Norway||KEiiNO||Spirit in the Sky||4.29%|
MOST LIKELY WINNER:
Netherlands – Duncan Laurence – This was the bookies favorite early on, a revealing music video and a haunting refrain have most likely put this at the top. Duncan had another great weekend as part of the London pre-party and he is still the favorite to win Eurovision 2019.
Since the leaderboard has reached a pretty steady state – let’s turn our attention to semi-final one — now just a little over three weeks away. What does our tool say about the qualification chances of each of the countries competing.
SEMI-FINAL 1 – TUESDAY MAY 14th
|Pos.||Country||Artist||Song||Chances of Qualifying|
|2||Iceland||Hatari||Hatrið mun sigra||69.98%|
|4||Greece||Katerine Duska||Better Love||50.77%|
|6||Slovenia||Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl||Sebi||33.80%|
|7||San Marino||Serhat||Say Na Na Na||24.27%|
|8||Australia||Kate Miller-Heidke||Zero Gravity||23.53%|
|9||Czech Republic||Lake Malawi||Friend of a Friend||19.36%|
|11||Hungary||Joci Pápai||Az én apám||15.04%|
|14||Finland||Darude ft. Sebastian Rejman||Look Away||11.61%|
|15||Poland||Tulia||Fire of Love (Pali się)||11.32%|
|17||Georgia||Oto Nemsadze||Keep on Going||5.96%|
I take you through the running order, qualifying chances and human adjustments I’d make to the tool here:
Cyprus – leading off the show will be TAMTA – we all expect this to qualify, I challenge you to find a scenario in which it does not. Cyprus has the momentum coming into this year and TAMTA is bound to elevate a great track that has already won a lot of fans with its high-end production. ODDS: Qualify, JOEY: Qualify
Montenegro – our tool gives this roughly a 7% chance of qualifying – which is probably generous. The track got revamped after being selected but even the charm of D-Mol can’t save this dated song. I think that the second position in the running order has sealed its fate if that weren’t enough. ODDS: Does Not Qualify, Joey: Does Not Qualify
Finland – I agree with the tool here in that Finland will not qualify. The viewing public has not shown any sign of warming to DJ acts on the Eurovision stage and Finland have historically struggled with the juries. Saraa Alto narrowly qualified last year by winning public votes that I don’t think Darude can replicate. Odds: Does Not Qualify, Joey: Does Not Qualify
Poland – Here’s the first spot I disagree with the tool – while the tool only shows an outside chance 11% of Tulia qualifying – I think there performance is a bit intangible at the moment. The style of music may not be made for building too much Spotify play or attention before the show.. but the visuals and Polish diaspora are going to make this more of a favorite with the public than what the odds say, I hope. Odds: Does Not Qualify, Joey: Qualify
Slovenia – Agree we are going to see Sebi in the final. This is memorable and has a nice running spot ODDS: Qualify, JOEY: Qualify
Czech Republic – Agree that CR will be back in the final this year! Lake Malawi also have a great running spot and don’t underestimate a song in which you can grab hold of in 30 seconds. This is too immediate and contemporary for the public to ignore. Although, we know the Czech public would have chosen Space Sushi over this! ODDS: Qualify, JOEY: Qualify
Hungary – Our tool says this is borderline and on the side of not qualifying, while most odds are showing it qualifying with fair certainty. I am really torn on this one. I think sometimes odds may be overstated where there is name recognition. If this does not qualify, it will be a shock, but I think I’m going to agree with the tool on this.ODDS: Does Not Qualify, JOEY: Does Not Qualify
Serbia – I’m going narrowly agree with the tool here and say that Serbia will get swept away in this duo of non-English language ballads. Nevena has a big fanbase that seems mobilized to help with the public vote and I think the juries will respect this but it could miss narrowly if others surge.ODDS: Does Not Qualify, JOEY: Does Not Qualify
Belarus – I think Zena will surprise a lot of people and will have a decent public vote, but I don’t see juries liking this.ODDS: Does Not Qualify, JOEY: Does Not Qualify
Belgium – Ok, so the tool has this qualifying with some room for error, but I think this is another close call for Belgium. I am erring on the side of Eliot qualifying since he will most likely command the young male hearthrob spot of this semi. ODDS: Qualifies, JOEY: Qualifies
Georgia – Oto is such a great guy and he is doing what he does with such passion. If this were a contest about believing in your song and giving it everything you got, I’d put money on him. However, since it’s not only about those things, and I’ve seen the public reaction – I’m not going to put any money on him qualifying and I think the tool has it correct. ODDS: Does Not Qualify, JOEY: Does Not Qualify
Australia – Kate is capable of creating a memorable moment in 3 minutes from her vocals alone and with the staging that the song lends itself too I think this will sail through with the help of juries that continue to place Australia high. ODDS: Qualifies, JOEY: Qualifies
Iceland – All going to the master plan, on schedule. The Hatari movement is real. ODDS: Qualifies, JOEY: Qualifies
Estonia – This is another questionable call for me and for the tool for that matter – placing it 10th. Victor is going to deliver a by the numbers pop Scandi-sounding song that Eurofans will love. However, I’m shocked at how Estonia has performed in the semis the past couple of years. In 2018 they came 7th with the juries despite being 3rd with the fans and we all know what they did to poor Verona the year before, placing it 17th ! despite it coming 6th with the fans. ODDS: Qualifies, JOEY: Does not qualify
Portugal – Ok, so here is where our tool needs some work, because I think we have some internal bias towards Spain and Portugal where a large percentage of our readers come from. Having said that – I do agree and hope Conan will qualify. This is forward thinking while still being an homage to traditional fado music in a sense. The staging will be hard to ignore if Festival de Cancon is anything to go by. ODDS: Qualifies, JOEY: Qualifies
Greece – Like Cyprus, the closest thing we have to a lock and this my prediction on who will actually win this semi.ODDS: Qualifies, JOEY: Qualifies
San Marino – the final placement of San Marino really helps with its chances of qualifying. It’s pretty rare in the past 7 or 8 Eurovisions to have a semi-final song that closes the show not advance to the final… but since the songs are selected by the producers to run in that order, there is a certain amount of judgement already baked into that statistic. Still, if there ever was a time for San Marino to get back to the grand final stage.. it’s now. Tel Aviv calls for a party and Say Na Na Na is just that… ODDS: Qualifies, JOEY: Qualifies
ESCplus odds is an exclusive tool that gathers results from different sources, such as betting odds, views, users reactions and potential comments to simulate the results of the contest. The methodology behind the tool relies on various principles of mathematical modelling and historical data.
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The Eurovision Song Contest 2019 will take place on 14th, 16th and 18th May in Tel Aviv, Israel.