Does the running order affect the chances of winning at Junior Eurovision?

The running order is one of the most debated factors among Junior Eurovision fans, with theories ranging from the “curse of the opening slot” to the belief that performing at the end greatly improves the chances of winning. With the 24th edition just two weeks away, in Ta’ Qali (Malta) on Saturday 24 October, it is worth asking whether the position in which a song is performed really makes a difference.

Below we look at the historical data of the contest: in which positions the winners performed, which slots have been the luckiest and what the order looks like in 2026.

Voting and running order: how do they interact?

Several factors influence the final result at Junior Eurovision. The points come in equal parts from national juries and from online voting open to viewers around the world. There are no phone or SMS votes, and the online vote works in two stages: one before the live show, based on rehearsal clips, and another that opens after the last song has been performed.

That has a direct consequence for the running order. The main reason a late slot might help is recency: audiences tend to remember best the performances they have seen most recently. That effect should matter mostly in the second online voting window, which opens after all the entries have performed. The juries, by contrast, have voted in recent editions on the basis of the dress rehearsal (the “jury show”) held the day before the live show, so they are less exposed to the order.

In which positions have the winners performed?

Looking at the history of the contest, only four of the 23 winners performed in the first half of the show: Croatia in 2003 (2nd of 16), Georgia in 2008 (6th of 15), Armenia in 2021 (9th of 19) and France in 2022 (6th of 16).

The earliest winner was Croatia: Dino Jelusić won the very first contest with “Ti si moja prva ljubav” after performing second. The most recent winner from the first half was Lissandro of France, who won in Yerevan 2022 with “Oh Maman!”, performing sixth. A year earlier, in Paris 2021, Maléna of Armenia had won with “Qami Qami” from ninth place.

On the other hand, the most successful slot in terms of closing the show is the last one. Six winners have performed last: Belarus in 2005 and 2007, Russia in 2006, Georgia in 2016, Poland in 2018 and France in 2020. Curiously, between 2005 and 2007 the three winners were all the last act on stage.

Roksana Węgiel of Poland performed 20th in Minsk 2018, the highest running position of any winner, as that edition had the most participants in the contest’s history.

Overall, wins are spread widely across positions. However, five slots are tied as the luckiest, with three victories each:

• 9th: Ukraine in 2012, Armenia in 2021 and Georgia in 2024.
• 11th: Malta in 2013, Italy in 2014 and Poland in 2019.
• 12th: Georgia in 2011, France in 2020 and France in 2023.
• 15th: Spain in 2004, Russia in 2006 and Malta in 2015.
• 17th: Belarus in 2007, Georgia in 2016 and France in 2025.

Here is the running position of every Junior Eurovision winner since the first edition:

Year	Host city	Winner	Running position	Entries
2003	Copenhagen	Croatia	2nd	16
2004	Lillehammer	Spain	15th	18
2005	Hasselt	Belarus	16th	16
2006	Bucharest	Russia	15th	15
2007	Rotterdam	Belarus	17th	17
2008	Limassol	Georgia	6th	15
2009	Kyiv	Netherlands	7th	13
2010	Minsk	Armenia	10th	14
2011	Yerevan	Georgia	12th	13
2012	Amsterdam	Ukraine	9th	12
2013	Kyiv	Malta	11th	12
2014	Marsa	Italy	11th	16
2015	Sofia	Malta	15th	17
2016	Valletta	Georgia	17th	17
2017	Tbilisi	Russia	13th	16
2018	Minsk	Poland	20th	20
2019	Gliwice	Poland	11th	19
2020	Warsaw	France	12th	12
2021	Paris	Armenia	9th	19
2022	Yerevan	France	6th	16
2023	Nice	France	12th	16
2024	Madrid	Georgia	9th	17
2025	Tbilisi	France	17th	18

Does that mean the order decides the winner?

Not by itself. The table shows that songs have won from almost every part of the running order, and 2025 is a good example: France won from 17th place out of 18, while Ukraine, which won the online vote, performed sixth. Still, the data show that the second half of the show is clearly favoured: 19 of the 23 winners performed there. The final position is not a guarantee of victory, but being buried in the opening slots has historically been a disadvantage, and a strong staging and a strong song remain the decisive factors.

The running order of Junior Eurovision 2026

For the second year in a row, the order of performance of Junior Eurovision 2026 was decided by a draw, with the entries divided into two pots according to their musical style and rhythm. It was published on 28 September. Maria of the Netherlands will open the show with “Stronger Together”, while Lucas Paulano will close it for Spain with “Cuore Bello (Te Quiero, Te Quiero)”, right after Georgia. The hosts, Malta, will perform ninth, one of the five slots that have produced three winners.

Running order	Country	Artist	Song
01	Netherlands	Maria	“Stronger Together”
02	Cyprus	Harry Georgiou	“Who I Can Be”
03	Portugal	Salvador Rio	“Alma”
04	Montenegro	Mija Vujović	“Muzika Nas Spaja”
05	San Marino	Violamarie	“Ruota Panoramica”
06	France	Alec	“Comment Tu Vas ?”
07	Poland	Wiktor Sas	“Gravity”
08	Armenia	Naré	“BOO!”
09	Malta	Beppe	“Blue Bird”
10	Italy	Matteo Trullu	“Che Cos’è l’Amore?”
11	Ukraine	Erika Kolesnichenko	“NOT A LULLABY”
12	North Macedonia	Ana Stojanoska	“Idnata Jas”
13	Ireland	Caleb Kirwan & Naomi Gribben	“Níos Láidre”
14	Albania	Eslin Kurti	“Kërce Me Mua”
15	Georgia	Davit Lomidze	“Sun on the Rooftops”
16	Spain	Lucas Paulano	“Cuore Bello (Te Quiero, Te Quiero)”

With 16 entries, the second half of the show starts with the 9th performance, so the hosts, Malta, sit right on the boundary. The final four slots go to Ireland, Albania, Georgia and Spain. As the history of the contest shows, the order can help, but the verdict will be given by the juries and the online vote on 24 October from 21:00 CEST.